Chance Does Not Exist*

Chance does not exist. It is only a word we use to disguise our ignorance. Consider a coin toss. Before the coin is flipped, we say there is a 50/50 chance of it landing on either heads or tails. That is, it is just as likely to land on one as the other. But this is simply not true. From the moment the coin is flipped, depending on the height it is flipped, how fast it rotates, the weight of the coin, and countless other factors: the coin was absolutely, 100% going to land on one of the two sides. When I pick up a coin to decide who goes first or whatever, it seems fair because no one knows which side it will land on, but how fair is it? From the moment I picked up the coin –even more, the moment the coin was made –it was always going to land heads (or tails, of course). Now consider a coin with heads on both sides. I flip it and know for a fact on which side it will land. The only difference between the two coins is my knowledge. The reality is there was never any ‘chance’ that the two-sided coin would land on anything but whatever it landed on. If I made a “coin tossing machine which factored in every variable and ensured the coin to always land heads-up, we no longer call it chance, but how is it different from a typical coin toss? The answer is knowledge. The machine flips the coin and to the untrained eye there is an equal chance that it will land up or down, but the reality is different.

This is a silly demonstration, but think about where else it applies. As we move backward in time (mentally) we sometimes think about “what could have been,” but was there ever any other option? If I flip a coin and it lands tails, I can mentally recall the coin toss and wonder what would have happened if it had landed on heads all day, but that was never going to happen. It’s like watching a movie you have seen before in reverse –there was no other ending other than Jack dying in the frigid waters as the Titanic sinks to the bottom of the sea. There was no way, based on the velocity that I tossed the coin, angle it was tossed, force of gravity, etc. that there were any other alternatives than one –the one reality that actually happened. Now think about a big decision in your past (or a small one). What if you had taken that job? What if you had moved? What if you had taken Chaucer instead of Children’s Lit? The very reason I met my future wife is because I looked at two college classes and arbitrarily picked one. Looking back, it seems random or like a stroke of chance, but the reality was that nothing but me choosing that class was ever going to happen. Based on my current mood, internet speed, course requirements, and innumerable factors I was going to pick that class.
This seeming determinism is scientific, in fact. In quantum mechanics, there is a principal called “Quantum Superposition” which requires that an object exists in both states until it is measured. Just like the coin toss, the universe seems random until it is measured. I believe that Einstein was correct in asserting that God doesn’t play dice –or if He does, he understands the outcome of their rolling. So even at its most fundamental state, it seems probability is a myth. The implications for this, especially theological, are enormous. Why should we care about the future when it seems as though our actions are irrelevant? I believe that, to the contrary, our actions are more important than we could ever imagine. Without them, nothing could be accomplished. There is a purpose in every little thing as well as every big thing. The world would not exist in its current state, or where it will be in the future without actions. Certain things “need” to happen in order for other things to happen. The sounds very vague, but every great event in the history of the universe, from the beginning, to the fall of Rome to the French revolution, to me typing this right now has happened because of something else before it. When something is very important, we say it “needs” to be done. Maybe everything we do and will do are things that “need” to be done.


*I'm partially playing Devil's Advocate here, trying to work some things out.